Will Public Sector Retiree Health Benefit Plans Survive? Economic and Policy Implications of Unfunded Liabilities.

Recent articles have reported a large and growing financial crisis associated with retiree health plans offered by state and local governments, and have expressed alarm over their impact on the financial status of these governmental units (Goldman Sachs 2007; David Zion and Amit Varshney 2007). The concern about the unfunded liabilities of retiree health plans follows from a change in the public accounting rules issued by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB). GASB Statement No. 45 requires state and local governments to report unfunded accrued liabilities and annual required contributions needed to fully fund the retiree health promises. The GASB 45 statements produced by state governments indicate that unfunded liabilities for state employees and retirees total approximately $500 billion. This does not include additional liabilities associated with retiree health plans for local governments and public school teachers with plans that are not managed at the state level. The explicit acknowledgement of these liabilities and their absolute and relative size has created considerable concern and debate among economists, policymakers, and voters. This article presents data from state actuarial reports on the size of retiree health liabilities, examines the key assumptions used to determine the unfunded liabilities, and then assesses the potential future of retiree health plans in the public sector.